According to @KobeissiLetter, the US Financial Conditions Index has declined to 98.3, marking the lowest level since early 2022. According to @KobeissiLetter, financial conditions have been in a firm downtrend for roughly 3.5 years. According to @KobeissiLetter, the Federal Reserve has cut rates by 175 basis points since September 2024, bringing the policy rate to 3.75%.

According to glassnode, the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair and a hotter-than-expected PPI triggered a hawkish shock that pushed commodities and crypto lower. According to glassnode, BTC options data sheds light on positioning, implied volatility, and sentiment beneath the move.

According to Gary Black, US stocks fell and Treasury yields rose as President Trump prepared to nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair. According to Gary Black, Warsh is viewed as more hawkish on monetary policy and inflation than other contenders, contradicting Trump’s push for lower interest rates. According to Gary Black, the confirmation path may be complicated because Senator Thom Tillis vowed to block any Trump Fed nominees until an investigation into the central bank’s renovation is resolved. According to Gary Black, Trump is expected to announce his choice for Fed chair on Friday morning.

According to @AggrNews, Donald Trump has narrowed the Federal Reserve Chair selection to Kevin Warsh and Rick Rieder and is leaning toward Warsh, with the update attributed to reporting via @rachaelmbade (source: @AggrNews). According to @AggrNews, Trump has ruled out Kevin Hassett for the role (source: @AggrNews). According to @AggrNews, Trump met both Warsh and Rieder at the White House and plans to announce the pick tomorrow morning (source: @AggrNews). Given the timing reported by @AggrNews, headline risk into the announcement window could affect USD, Treasury futures, and equity index futures as rate expectations and liquidity sensitivity come into focus (source: @AggrNews).

According to @GreeksLive, the first monthly options expiration of 2026 arrives tomorrow with over 25% of options positions set to expire. According to @GreeksLive, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and there are no major near-term catalysts, keeping price action stable with implied volatility muted into expiry. According to @GreeksLive, this setup indicates a steady tape around the expiration window with IV remaining compressed.

According to Charlie Bilello, multiple U.S. macro indicators are at extremes: stocks, home prices, gold and silver, money supply, and national debt are all at all-time highs, CPI inflation has run above 4% per year since 2020—more than twice the Federal Reserve’s target—and the Fed is expected to cut interest rates two more times this year, underscoring elevated asset prices alongside ongoing rate-cut expectations (source: Charlie Bilello).

According to @GreeksLive, futures pricing assigns over a 95% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain the policy rate at 3.75% with no cut. According to @GreeksLive, gold has posted new highs again and leadership is rotating among major speculative markets ahead of the announcement.

According to @BullTheoryio, the US dollar is selling off following reports of Federal Reserve rate checks and speculation about Japanese yen intervention, and the IMF is stress testing scenarios involving a rapid sell-off of U.S. dollar assets based on remarks attributed to Kristalina Georgieva (source: @BullTheoryio).

According to @lookonchain, the market is pricing in no change for the Jan 28 Fed decision, yet a newly created wallet spent $23,000 across three tail-risk bets: a 25-plus bps increase, a 25 bps decrease, and a 50-plus bps decrease (source: @lookonchain). According to @lookonchain, the wallet stands to collect potential payouts of over $1.27 million, over $2.01 million, or up to $5.64 million if any one extreme scenario occurs, highlighting event-driven tail-risk positioning that traders can monitor for volatility into the decision (source: @lookonchain).

According to Eleanor Terrett, severe weather could delay the Senate Agriculture Committee’s crypto market structure markup vote, while the Federal Reserve is in focus with Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks and discussion of a possible replacement pick by Donald Trump; source: Eleanor Terrett on X and Crypto in America. These developments keep U.S. crypto regulation and Fed policy signals at the forefront for trading decisions in digital assets and related equities; source: Crypto in America.

According to @Andre_Dragosch, the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain an easing bias at least until May 2026 and could cut further under a new chair, citing Truflation real time gauges that indicate near-zero inflation (BLS CPI comparison 0.51% Y/Y, custom US CPI 1.21% Y/Y, US PCE 1.46% Y/Y), per @truflation. The author frames the prospective policy path as brrr all the way, linking the low inflation readings to a sustained dovish stance, per @Andre_Dragosch.

According to @garyblack00, online bettors have increased the probability that BlackRock CIO Rick Rieder will be nominated as the next Fed Chair to about 35%, compared with 42% for Kevin Warsh, with Rieder viewed as dovish and Warsh as more hawkish (source: @garyblack00). According to @garyblack00, a Rieder nomination would likely be received favorably by markets because his stance implies further interest rate cuts, a setup traders monitor when positioning in risk assets including Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) (source: @garyblack00).

According to Charlie Bilello, the Fed has matched market expectations at every FOMC since 2009, and the bond market is pricing only a 2.8% chance of a rate cut heading into the meeting (source: Charlie Bilello on X). According to Charlie Bilello, the committee is expected to hold the policy rate at 3.50–3.75% with no cut, a setup traders can use as a baseline for positioning in risk assets including BTC and ETH into the event (source: Charlie Bilello on X).

According to Charlie Bilello, Core PCE rose to 2.8% in November, marking the 57th consecutive reading above the Federal Reserve's 2% target and making a rate cut at the upcoming meeting unlikely, with a case even for a hike. Based on Charlie Bilello's view, crypto traders should prepare for a higher for longer rates backdrop by monitoring U.S. yields and the dollar, as tighter financial conditions can pressure liquidity-sensitive assets like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH).

According to @StockMKTNewz, Wednesday through Friday will bring Supreme Court on the Fed, the PCE release, and corporate earnings, setting up a busy trading week. Source: Evan (@StockMKTNewz), Twitter, Jan 18, 2026 https://twitter.com/StockMKTNewz/status/2012948997514670274

According to @garyblack00, U.S. equity futures are sharply lower pre-market as the Trump Administration’s push for lower short-term rates threatens Fed independence, lifting inflation expectations and long-term yields, a setup that typically pressures high-duration equities and favors defensive assets (source: @garyblack00 on X, Jan 12, 2026). Gold and silver have surged to new highs, signaling risk-off rotation into precious metals amid rising inflation expectations (source: @garyblack00 on X, Jan 12, 2026). Brent crude is lower after Iran said security forces have full control following two weeks of unrest, easing supply risk premia (source: @garyblack00 on X, Jan 12, 2026). NVDA and TSLA are down in pre-market trading in line with the Nasdaq, highlighting broad growth-tech weakness under higher rate expectations (source: @garyblack00 on X, Jan 12, 2026). The post does not cite any direct impact on crypto assets or BTC/ETH pricing, implying no immediate crypto-specific signal from this update (source: @garyblack00 on X, Jan 12, 2026).

According to the source, a report claims the U.S. Department of Justice is targeting Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, but this is not corroborated by any official notice in the U.S. Department of Justice Newsroom or Federal Reserve press releases available in public records reviewed, source: U.S. Department of Justice; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. With no official confirmation, the trading approach is to remain neutral on BTC and wait for an official DOJ statement, court filing, or Fed communication before positioning, and monitor the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield and the Fed’s trade-weighted dollar index for confirmation of macro risk, source: U.S. Department of the Treasury; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

According to @StockMKTNewz, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has set the release of the December U.S. Producer Price Index for January 30, establishing a confirmed macro event date for trading desks. Source: @StockMKTNewz; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics release calendar. PPI tracks producer-level inflation and is monitored alongside CPI and PCE by policymakers, making it relevant for rate expectations and cross-asset volatility around the print. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (PPI program overview); Federal Reserve communications on inflation monitoring. Crypto markets, including BTC and ETH, have historically been sensitive around major U.S. inflation releases as liquidity and positioning adjust to updated policy odds. Source: CME Group Bitcoin futures market commentary and volume data; Coinbase Institutional market updates.

According to @simplykashif, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said a rate hike is not the base case right now and he is not hearing that view from anyone on the committee, source: @simplykashif on X (Dec 11, 2025). This guidance points to a pause bias versus additional tightening, reducing the immediate perceived probability of further rate hikes used by traders in macro-sensitive strategies, source: @simplykashif. For crypto markets, the removal of a near-term hike as the base case can affect positioning and volatility in BTC and ETH as desks recalibrate Fed path assumptions, source: @simplykashif.

According to @WatcherGuru, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the Fed believes recent job gains have been overstated by about 60,000 in recent months, aligning with the Fed’s focus on labor data within its dual mandate. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Chair Powell press remarks; Federal Reserve, Monetary Policy and the Dual Mandate. For trading, a weaker underlying labor picture typically increases market-implied odds of policy easing and can pressure front-end Treasury yields and the US dollar, metrics closely watched by BTC and ETH traders for liquidity and risk-sentiment cues. Source: CME Group, FedWatch Tool methodology on interest rate expectations; Coin Metrics, State of the Network research on macro-crypto correlations.